Housing And Enrollment Study Wayzata Public Schools February 2015 Dick Carlstrom, Consulting Geographer
Homes for sale in Wayzata School District
Wayzata Public School District Housing and Enrollment Study
This report details the findings of a study of the enrolled student population of the Wayzata Independent School District 284 and the role that the district’s housing stock plays in determining the structure and dynamics of that population.
The specific objectives of this study are to seek answers to the following housing/enrollment questions:
- What role does new home construction play in shaping the district’s enrollment?
- What are the spatial patterns of the district’s housing stock with respect to type, age and value?
- What is the distribution and density of the enrolled students throughout the district’s neighborhoods?
- What is the per-unit student yield of single-family housing in the district?
- Do the numbers of enrolled students increase when single-family homes “turnover”?
- How does the district’s K-12 student yield compare with other similar districts?
- What role does “aging-in-place” play in the district’s demography?
- Recent Home Construction: Between the years 2000 and 2014 2,747 single family homes were built in the district. The student yield of these units is 0.93 students per home while the yield of all homes in the district is 0.53 students per homes for sale wayzata school district.
- Home Sales: The 2,373 single-family homes sold in the district during January 1, 2012 to September 30, 2014, had a post-sale yield of 0.62 students per home. The overall K-12 yield in single-family homes is 0.53. Although there are differences in yield with respect to the age of the homes this does indicate that sales of single-family homes do result in a gain of new families with school-age children.
- K-12 Density: Thirty percent of the single-family homes in the district have households with ISD 284 enrolled students, and 41 percent have households with residents “aging in place” over the age of 55.
- K-12 Housing Type: Eighty percent of the K-12 enrolled students live in single family housing, while 10 percent live in multi-family units. Three percent of students live in condominium units, and 6 percent live in townhomes.
- Student Yield: The districtwide student yield for single-family homes is 0.52 students per home. Yields for individual grade ranges are; 0.23 for grades K-5, 0.13 for grades 6-8, and 0.17 for grades 9-12.
- Empty Nesters: High densities of aging-in-place households are dispersed throughout the older eastern and southern areas of the district. Because of modest median home values many of these householders without children may choose to remain in their homes rather than sell and move to a condominium or other housing alternative.
- Projected New Development: Over the next three years the district will see the construction of more than 2,000 new single family homes and the development of more than 300 market rate apartment units.
- Comparisons with other school districts: The district’s K-12 student yield is 0.53 students per home. This is higher than other suburban districts in the west and southwest metropolitan area. Studies conducted by the author have found that yields for other districts are; St. Louis Park (0.24), Robbinsdale (0.26), Bloomington (0.33).
Age and Value Of Homes for sale in Wayzata School District
The findings of this study are consistent with similar enrollment studies conducted in other suburban school districts built out from a larger core urban area.
In these districts, the age and value of the single-family homes is a major factor in the demographic pattern of the district. Study areas with large number of homes built before 1960 generally have lower K-12 yields, lower K-12 densities and higher percentages of households age 55+ than do areas with younger homes. This trend is similar but less pronounced for homes built during the decades of the 1960’s and 70’s. With respect to value of homes it appears that homes in the mid-value ranges have the highest student yields.
Demographic and geographic data was obtained from the Wayzata district student information system and the Hennepin County tax and geographic information systems. From these data sources, characteristics of housing units, K-12 students and households were extracted and synthesized using geographic information system (GIS) technology. This GIS software is used to overlay student and residential characteristics onto a digital geographic representation of the school district. From this, statistics can then be developed regarding housing type and characteristics, and the distribution and density of K-12 students.
Analysis by Housing/Enrollment Study Areas
The detailed analysis of housing and demographic data was done by individual study areas, as shown in Map A.
The Wayzata Public School District contains a wide variety of housing types, including single-family homes, duplexes, townhomes, condominiums and apartments. Table 1 lists the counts by study area for housing types for which data is available. Because of the nature of their ownership, it is not possible to obtain comprehensive, detailed information for apartments.
The district contains 14,984 single-family homes, and 1,812 Wayzata condominium units. The district contains 122 duplex units and throughout the district are an additional 275 “subdivided” duplex units. These properties were originally duplex units that have been divided into two separate dwellings and sold separately. The district also has 1,812 townhomes.
Age and Value of single-family housing
Analysis of the value and age of single-family housing clearly shows a pattern of older, homes in the southeastern and southern areas of the district, with higher concentrations of newer homes in the northeast and north. Table 2-1 details the median value and decade built of the single-family homes in each study area. The lowest median values are in Area 6 ($262,200) and Area 1 ($229,000). Area 3 has the highest median value, $575,000.
Thirty-one percent of the homes in Area 7, and 30 percent of the units in Area 6 were built before 1960. Area 8 has the highest percentage (86 percent) of homes built since the year 2000
Map B-1 illustrates the percentage of homes, for each study area, that were built prior to the year 1960. This map pictures the general demographic pattern in the district. Upcoming sections of this report will detail how the darker (older) areas of the district differ demographically from the lighter (younger) areas.
Recent Housing Development
The construction of new single family homes has a significant impact upon the enrollment of the district. Since the year 2000 there have been 2,747 single family units built. It will be shown that these homes have much higher student yields than other housing types in the district. Map B-2 shows the distribution throughout the district of the parcels upon which new homes were built during the years 2005-2014.
Municipal planning officials project that in the district over the next three years there will be construction of more than 2,000 single-family homes, 314 market rate apartments 12 townhomes, 124 condominium units, and 48 twin home units. Table 2-2 details by city the types and numbers of units projected for future construction.
Table 3 lists the number of live births reported by the Minnesota Department of Health for the period from September 1, 1999 to August 31, 2014. The highest number of births during this time frame was 632 during the 1999 to 2000 school year. During this multi-year period there has been a general downward trend but with recent upticks in the 2012-13 school year (611 births) and the 2013-14 school year (598 births). Map C shows the distribution of births in the district for the years 2010-14.
Household/Structure and “aging-in-place”
Many inner and middle ring suburban communities are seeing the phenomenon of “aging-in-place” in which parents of children who have grown and moved away remain in their homes for their post-child-rearing years. These residents are commonly referred to as “empty nesters.” Many districts are now concerned about the increase in the numbers of these aging-in-place households because by remaining in their homes, they limit the number of single-family homes available to young families with school-age children. Of particular concern are those aging-in-place households living in the more modestly priced single-family homes. Householders in a home with a lower value may be very hesitant to sell and move because the proceeds from their home sale may not be adequate to allow them to purchase a condominium or townhouse of their liking. Thus, residents in lower-value homes may be less mobile than those in higher-value properties.
One method of trying to understand this phenomena in a particular school district is to use voter data to determine the number of homes with aging-in-place households. Table 4 lists the number of households residing in single-family detached homes that have at least one person over the age of 55 who is registered to vote. This then is an indicator of the number of aging-in-place households. Voter records such as these can be a reliable indicator of demographic patterns since the percentage of individuals over the age of 55 who are registered to vote is quite high. The table also lists the number of homes in which children of school age reside.
Table 4 shows that 30 percent of the single-family homes in the district have households with district-enrolled K-12 children and 41 percent have households with residents who are over the age of 55 and registered to vote. Areas 7 and 6 have the highest percentage of these older households with 51 percent and 49 percent respectively. The area with the highest percentage of homes with enrolled students in area 2 (60 percent. Areas 5 and 7 had the lowest proportions of homes with enrolled children with 18 percent and 9 percent respectively.
Median property values can shed light on the mobility of the aging-in-place households identified above. Although it does not have the highest percentages of aging-in-place households, Area 6 has 49 percent of its households to be aging-in-place. This area also has a low median home value of $262,600. These lower values will quite likely be a barrier to residents selling their homes and therefore opening those units up for younger families with school-age children. Map D shows the percentages by study area of registered voters over the age of 55.
K-12 students and housing type
Where students live and the type of housing they live in is detailed in Table 5. By far, the largest proportion (80 percent) of enrolled students live in single-family homes. Three percent live in condominium units. Apartment dwellers account for 10 percent, and those living in Wayzata School District townhomes make up 6 percent. Areas 1 and 3 had the highest percentage of K-12 students in single-family homes each with 100% of students in single family units. Area 8 (63 percent) and 9 (72 percent) had the lowest. Area 9 had the highest proportion of students in apartments, with 20 percent. Map E pictures the percentage, by attendance area, of homes with K-12 students residing within.
K-12 student yield of single-family housing
Table 6 illustrates the K-12 student yields for the single-family homes in the district. The districtwide student yield for single-family homes is 0.53. With respect to specific study areas, the highest yield is found in Area 2 (1.04 students). The lowest yields are found in Area 1 (0.28 students), and Area 7 (0.33 students). The highest K-5 yield is in Area 8 (0.54 students). Area 2 (0.11 students) and Area 7 (0.13 students) have the lowest K-5 yields. Map F pictures the K-12 student yields for the individual study areas.
K-12 student yield in single family homes by era built
Table 7 details the yields of K-12 enrolled students in single family homes classified by era built. Homes built prior to 1960 had a K-12 yield of 0.25 students per home, while single family units built since 2000 had a yield of 0.93.
K-12 student yield in single family homes by value classification
Table 8, lists the yields of single family homes by four classifications of estimated market values. Higher valued homes exhibit higher yields than do single-family units in lower ranges. This is consistent with other districts with homes of similar age and style. Tables 9 and 10 show yields for grade ranges K-5 also by era built and value class. Results here are similar to tables 7 and 8.
Sales of single-family homes and resulting student yield / homes for sale in wayzata school district
Table 11 shows the number of single-family homes that were sold in each area between January 1, 2012, and September 30, 2014. During that period, 2,373 (16 percent) of the district’s single-family homes were sold. Area 8 showed the highest percentage of homes sold. Areas 6, 9, and 10 all had the lowest percentage of homes sold (11 percent). Tables 12 and 13 break out the sales by year built and value classification. Map G portrays the percentage of homes sold by study area.
The role of home sales in enrollment change is detailed in Table 14. For the time frame cited above, the table shows the yields of enrolled students in the homes sold post sale. As has been stated, on a district wide basis, the K-12 student yield in single family homes is 0.53 students per home. After the sales, the yield was 0.62. This indicates that home sales in the district are resulting in an enrollment increase.
Table 15 details the yields of K-5 students in the homes sold. K-5 student yield in the district overall is 0.23. The K-5 yield in homes sold is 0.39 indicating gain from the home sales. Conmparing the areas, Areas 6 and 7 showed lower yields while 2, 3 and 8 exhibit higher yields from home sales.
Tables 16 and 17 show sales and yields for homes sold by era built and value class. Homes built pre-1960 had the lowest post sale yield of 0.29. The highest yield by era built is 0.83 for the post 2000 period. The mid-range valued homes had the highest post sale yield of the four value ranges.
Maps H and I portray, respectively, the distribution throughout the district of students eligible for free and reduced priced lunches, and English language learners.
Additional info: Wayzata School District Map / Wayzata Real Estate
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